Our insider Jones Knows believes Leeds can start their march to survival, Norwich can beat Wolves and Man City’s game at West Ham will go goal-mad.
Tottenham vs Burnley, Sunday 12:00 p.m.
Tottenham may have ignited their top-four hopes on Thursday, but this is a tough game for them. Burnley have the defensive ability to frustrate at a level that makes the 1/3 with Sky Bet in home win very easy to oppose. Nor do I feel comfortable backing Spurs after a tight turnaround, suffering upset defeats to Middlesbrough, Southampton and indeed Burnley when I have four days or less to prepare. I am happy to accept the giveaway.
Dwight McNeil remains a player of interest in Burnley’s goalscoring market.
He is leading the fight for the club, performing superbly on the right while cutting with his preferred left foot.
The 22-year-old fell through the ranks under Sean Dyche after struggling with his form, but is back to his best and has just three games left to break his scoring duck for the season.
It has quality to find the network. McNeil has taken more shots (47) and more shots on goal (14) without scoring than any other Premier League player this season. That’s a wild stat for a player of his caliber. It’s worth following 9/1 with Sky Bet to get him to score.
SCORING PREDICTION: 1-1 | BET ANGLE: Dwight McNeil scores (9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
End-of-season matches where nothing of note is at stake should always prick the ears of punters who like to play in the goal market.
Just a quick look at the basic data tells the story that the average goals per game skyrockets in May. Over the last five years, Premier League games have averaged around 2.75 goals per game. In May, that average jumps to 3.05 as teams play more freely as the shackles of pressure are released. That 3.1 average has held up so far in May of this season, so games like this should see the cop over the goal line for punters.
And I’m happy to release both teams to score to raise the price.
SCORING PREDICTION: 2-2 | BET ANGLE: Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Leeds v Brighton, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This may seem like a tall order on paper for Leeds against a Brighton side that have beaten Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham and Wolves in their last six games. However, with so much at stake for Leeds and nothing for Brighton, a home win should be backed at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Graham Potter continues to do a good job with limited resources at Brighton, but his teams are unreliable when playing against defensive teams playing to stifle the opposition. His teams struggle to play against deep, compact defensive lines, something Jesse Marsch simply has to turn to for this matchup.
For example, in games against Sean Dyche, Roy Hodgson, Nuno Espirito Santo, Bruno Lage, David Moyes, Sam Allardyce and Steven Gerrard, all coaches who focus on organization and defensive structure, Potter’s record is P29 W4 E15 L10.
Leeds just have to win. And the Elland Road faithful can help them take their relegation fight to the final day.
SCORING PREDICTION: 1-0 | BET ANGLE: Leeds win and under 2.5 goals (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Watford v Leicester, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
In an average campaign for Leicester, James Maddison has shone brightly and showed why the coming season must be built around his free-role playing skills. His goal against Norwich in a 3-0 win on Wednesday was his 15th goal in all competitions and his eighth in the Premier League in his last 19 appearances.
Jamie Vardy’s power in front of goal remains strong, especially against the division’s weaker sides, but the first goalscorer market is too skewed in his direction at just 7/2 with Sky Bet to shoot first. Maddison has shown he is Leicester’s most dangerous attacking weapon this year, so 13/2 from him to score the opening goal seems a bit generous against a Watford side who will struggle to contain him.
SCORING PREDICTION: 0-2 | BET ANGLE: James Maddison scores first (2/13 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This Manchester City team is probably the best team in the Premier League right now, right?
What they are doing to top-class football teams right now is terrifying. Pep Guardiola’s side became the first team in English top-flight history to win five successive league games by a margin of at least three goals, achieving that feat amid the pressure-cooker environment of a race for title. It has led them to win their last five Premier League games by an aggregate score of 22-1. Expect to see the same level of attack poetry this weekend as they wrap up the title.
This West Ham attack will ask City questions, albeit in what should be a ‘you attack, we attack’ type of game.
Guardiola’s side are roaring for a Premier League title despite an injury crisis to all four of their defences. Ruben Dias is out, Aymeric Laporte is almost certain and Fernandinho is doubtful. And the way Chiquinho gave Oleksandr Zinchenko, a great footballer but not a natural defender, the run in the midweek win at Wolves certainly bodes well for Jarrod Bowen’s chances of having a big influence on this game.
I expect West Ham to score but 4/7 with Sky Bet for that to happen has made me look elsewhere and Bowen’s striker price is a beauty at 7/2. He is West Ham’s top scorer this season with 16 goals (10 in the Premier League), scoring seven goals in his last 13 Premier League starts since January 12 as his value continues to rise.
SCORING PREDICTION: 1-3 | BET ANGLE: Jarrod Bowen scores (7/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Bowen to score, to have two shots and Zinchenko to receive a card (66/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Wolves vs Norwich, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I wouldn’t go anywhere near Wolves at 2/5 with Sky Bet considering their miserable end to a campaign that threatened to be unforgettable in February. Bruno Lage’s side have lost five of their last eight Premier League games at Molineux, including defeats to Leeds, Brighton and Crystal Palace. That doesn’t include a 1-0 loss to Norwich in the FA Cup in February.
The ease with which Brighton and Manchester City got past their wobbly three defenders should bode well for even a team like Norwich to find a way to score. It is now seven games without a clean sheet for Lage’s men, whose mantra of being hard to beat is a thing of the past, conceding 16 goals in that period; no team in the Premier League has conceded more. A metric backed by expected goals against which is the second worst in that period (16.0).
Norwich, who play hard but lack quality, deserve a 13/2 hit with Sky Bet for the away win.
Such is the embarrassment of losing to the Canaries, that two clubs decided to ditch their manager after Sean Dyche at Burnley and Rafael Benítez opened the door. He wouldn’t rule out the hat-trick.
SCORING PREDICTION: 0-2 | BET ANGLE: Norwich to win (2/13 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Everton v Brentford, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Everton’s survival in the Premier League will be confirmed if they win here and Leeds don’t win at home against Brighton. They will also be safe barring a mathematical miracle with a draw if Leeds lose.
Frank Lampard’s approach of keeping the back door closed and playing no-nonsense football is making the oracle work. In their last six Premier League games, Everton have conceded just four goals, an impressive feat when you consider the level of opposition that has included Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United.
Although a win might be enough to guarantee his survival, I don’t see Lampard changing this style of football safely. Five of those last six games have fallen below the 2.5 goal mark and the 4/5 with Sky Bet for that to happen again looks like a solid bet.
I’m going to go for a higher price though and I like the look of the 0-0 correct score at half time at 8/15 with Sky Bet. In their last 11 games combined, only nine goals have been scored in the first half of games with seven of those games going goalless at half-time.
SCORING PREDICTION: 0-0 | BET ANGLE: Correct Score at Half Time 0-0 (8/15 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Newcastle vs Arsenal, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Temptation was running high to row a Newcastle win at 16/5 with Sky Bet as Arsenal will need to show a serious mindset to get through Thursday, but Toon’s lack of motivation and Eddie Howe’s record against the top five teams has been toned down. my enthusiasm
Howe has faced the top five teams since taking over and has lost all seven games by a total score of 21-2. He has improved Newcastle, but they have outperformed what the performance metrics have presented for him. I’ll play it safe and take the draw.
My eyes have been drawn to Dan Burn for a possible betting angle.
If you take out the meetings with Manchester City and Liverpool, two teams that give their opponents little opportunity for set-piece situations, then Burn have managed at least one shot in 10 of his 12 appearances for Newcastle. Howe isn’t afraid to go straight from wide free throws and Burn is always the one to attack first contact. That is generating good chances inside the area that are equivalent to a figure of 0.91 expected goals. That marks him out as one of the most dangerous center-backs in the opposing team.
The 10/11 with Sky Bet so you have a chance is one of the best bets of the weekend.